{ "version": "2.0.0", "updated": "14 November 2026", "source": "User-provided BigQuery CSV export", "source_table": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.transactions", "cohorts": 40, "mature_cohorts": 36, "headline_variant": "filtered_50", "headline_week": 4, "accounts_in_mature_cohorts": 4627825, "week4_returning_accounts": 18989, "pooled_week4_retention_percent": 0.4103223436495546, "early_eight_cohort_average_percent": 1.8864592242193228, "latest_eight_cohort_average_percent": 3.18094311660639, "change_percentage_points": 1.2944838923870672, "welch_95_interval_percentage_points": [ -0.9166738621892135, 3.5056416469633476 ], "variants": { "all": { "mature_cohorts": 36, "accounts": 4630464, "returned": 19657, "retention_percent": 0.4245146922641014, "change_pp": 1.3894832681657976, "interval_pp": [ -0.8463511172977448, 3.62531765362934 ] }, "filtered_200": { "mature_cohorts": 36, "accounts": 4629912, "returned": 19506, "retention_percent": 0.4213039038322975, "change_pp": 1.3646758294174985, "interval_pp": [ -0.8616763430693203, 3.5910280019043173 ] }, "filtered_50": { "mature_cohorts": 36, "accounts": 4627825, "returned": 18989, "retention_percent": 0.4103223436495546, "change_pp": 1.2944838923870672, "interval_pp": [ -0.9166738621892135, 3.5056416469633476 ] }, "filtered_20": { "mature_cohorts": 36, "accounts": 4622006, "returned": 17288, "retention_percent": 0.3740367277757753, "change_pp": 1.3442166508074922, "interval_pp": [ -0.7824464540917276, 3.4708797557067115 ] } }, "note": "Recomputed from the supplied CSV. The original BigQuery job ID, exact query execution timestamp, bytes processed, and query hash were not included. Calculations can be reproduced from this export; no independent BigQuery rerun is claimed.", "cohort_diagnostics": { "mature_cohorts": 36, "total_accounts": 4627825, "total_returned": 18989, "pooled_rate_percent": 0.4103223436495546, "mean_cohort_rate_percent": 2.4127855700813647, "median_cohort_rate_percent": 2.3147696127773156, "median_cohort_size": 18439, "max_cohort_size": 1660162, "top_five_account_share_percent": 88.383571116021, "top_five_return_share_percent": 23.99810416556954, "top_five_pooled_rate_percent": 0.11141163702738986, "other_31_cohorts_pooled_rate_percent": 2.684583733233556, "note": "Pooled rate weights accounts equally; mean and median cohort rates describe weekly cohorts. The five largest cohorts account for 88.4% of the denominator but only 24.0% of week-four returns. The cause is unknown.", "top_five_cohorts": [ { "cohort_week": "2026-02-09", "accounts_filtered_50": 1660162, "accounts_all": 1660185, "accounts_filtered_20": 1660089, "week4_active_filtered_50": 671, "week4_rate_percent_filtered_50": 0.0404 }, { "cohort_week": "2026-02-16", "accounts_filtered_50": 1059422, "accounts_all": 1059473, "accounts_filtered_20": 1059195, "week4_active_filtered_50": 877, "week4_rate_percent_filtered_50": 0.0828 }, { "cohort_week": "2026-02-02", "accounts_filtered_50": 750108, "accounts_all": 750129, "accounts_filtered_20": 749997, "week4_active_filtered_50": 999, "week4_rate_percent_filtered_50": 0.1332 }, { "cohort_week": "2026-09-28", "accounts_filtered_50": 344247, "accounts_all": 345045, "accounts_filtered_20": 342698, "week4_active_filtered_50": 828, "week4_rate_percent_filtered_50": 0.2405 }, { "cohort_week": "2026-10-05", "accounts_filtered_50": 276298, "accounts_all": 276536, "accounts_filtered_20": 276034, "week4_active_filtered_50": 1182, "week4_rate_percent_filtered_50": 0.4278 } ], "top_five_accounts_all": 4091368, "top_five_accounts_filtered_20": 4088013, "top_five_accounts_filtered_50": 4090237, "high_activity_filter_effect": "The top five cohorts lose only 3,355 accounts (0.082%) from all to the >20 first-week transaction filter. The >50 filter removes 1,131 (0.028%). High-frequency filtering therefore does not explain the size spikes. This does not rule out low-frequency automation or campaign-driven one-time accounts.", "first_three_february_cohort_share_percent": 74.9746, "top_five_rate_vs_other_cohorts": "0.111% versus 2.685% pooled week-four retention" }, "params": { "scan_start": "2025-11-10", "start_date": "2026-02-02", "last_week_start": "2026-11-02", "max_weeks": 12 }, "retention_windows": [ { "week": 1, "eligible_cohorts": 39, "accounts": 4695104, "active_accounts": 44255, "pooled_retention_percent": 0.9425776298033015 }, { "week": 4, "eligible_cohorts": 36, "accounts": 4627825, "active_accounts": 18989, "pooled_retention_percent": 0.4103223436495546 }, { "week": 8, "eligible_cohorts": 32, "accounts": 3941854, "active_accounts": 11345, "pooled_retention_percent": 0.28780873162730025 }, { "week": 12, "eligible_cohorts": 28, "accounts": 3906626, "active_accounts": 8007, "pooled_retention_percent": 0.2049594714211189 } ], "largest_cohorts": [ { "cohort_week": "2026-02-09", "accounts": 1660162, "week4_active": 671, "week4_rate_percent": 0.0404 }, { "cohort_week": "2026-02-16", "accounts": 1059422, "week4_active": 877, "week4_rate_percent": 0.0828 }, { "cohort_week": "2026-02-02", "accounts": 750108, "week4_active": 999, "week4_rate_percent": 0.1332 }, { "cohort_week": "2026-09-28", "accounts": 344247, "week4_active": 828, "week4_rate_percent": 0.2405 }, { "cohort_week": "2026-10-05", "accounts": 276298, "week4_active": 1182, "week4_rate_percent": 0.4278 } ], "robustness_status": { "burn_in_12_weeks": "Existing supplied export", "burn_in_26_weeks": "Not run. Requires a separate BigQuery export.", "contract_attribution": "Query prepared. Must validate BigQuery schema and run before making application-level claims.", "note": "No account-level records were supplied, so the five large cohort weeks cannot yet be attributed to applications or campaigns." }, "market_context": { "snapshot_date": "2026-11-14", "source": "CoinGecko", "near_price_usd": 3.36, "market_cap_usd": 4400000000, "fully_diluted_valuation_usd": 4400000000, "circulating_supply_near": 1312000000, "tvl_usd": 107100000, "market_cap_to_tvl": 41.1, "note": "TVL figures have different scopes: CoinGecko's $107.1m and DeFiLlama's $125.08m are chain-level NEAR figures, while DeFiLlama's $276.2m NEAR Protocol Combined figure aggregates multiple chains. NEAR Intents separately reports cross-chain TVL. Compare like-for-like scopes and do not add overlapping totals.", "defillama_tvl_usd": 276200000, "coingecko_tvl_usd": 107087000, "coingecko_market_cap_usd": 4401000000, "defillama_market_cap_usd": 4376000000, "defillama_trailing_30d_fees_usd": 5950000, "defillama_trailing_30d_revenue_usd": 1930000, "defillama_trailing_year_fees_usd": 54140000, "defillama_trailing_year_revenue_usd": 9640000, "market_cap_to_trailing_year_fees": 80.8, "market_cap_to_trailing_year_revenue": 453.9, "defillama_combined_protocol_tvl_usd": 276200000, "defillama_near_chain_tvl_usd": 125080000, "near_intents_multichain_tvl_usd": 176710000, "near_intents_supported_chains": 26, "near_intents_volume_30d_usd": 3629000000, "near_intents_fees_30d_usd": 5830000, "near_intents_captured_revenue_30d_usd": 1810000, "defillama_holders_revenue_30d_usd": 1810000, "defillama_trailing_30d_holder_revenue_usd": 1810000, "holder_revenue_annualized_30d_run_rate_usd": 21720000, "holder_revenue_run_rate_as_market_cap_percent": 0.496, "coingecko_market_cap_to_chain_tvl": 41.1, "defillama_market_cap_to_chain_tvl": 35, "annual_revenue_hurdles_at_current_market_cap_usd": { "multiple_100": 43760000, "multiple_50": 87520000, "multiple_25": 175040000 }, "annual_revenue_hurdles_vs_current_revenue": { "multiple_100": 4.54, "multiple_50": 9.08, "multiple_25": 18.16 }, "tvl_scope_note": "The $276.2m NEAR Protocol Combined figure aggregates multiple chains; the Near chain component is about $125.08m. NEAR Intents separately reports about $176.71m across 26 chains. These scopes overlap and must not be added. Compare chain-only TVL with chain-only TVL.", "holders_revenue_note": "DeFiLlama defines NEAR Intents holders revenue as captured revenue used to buy back NEAR since 2026-02-23. It is buyback-based holder value capture, not a burn. A 30-day annualization is not guaranteed recurring yield.", "source_urls": { "defillama_near_protocol": "https://defillama.com/protocol/near-protocol", "defillama_near_intents": "https://defillama.com/protocol/near-intents", "defillama_near_chain": "https://defillama.com/chains/NEAR", "defillama_holders_revenue": "https://defillama.com/holders-revenue/chain/near", "near_revenue": "https://revenue.near.org/" }, "daily_issuance_near_approx": 88000, "daily_fee_burn_near_approx": 890, "daily_issuance_offset_by_fee_burn_percent": 1.011, "post_v87_burn_sample_start": "2026-11-04", "post_v87_burn_sample_end": "2026-11-12", "burn_vs_issuance_note": "Unlocks Insights estimated about 88k NEAR issued/day and 890 NEAR burned/day in the first eight days after protocol v87. This is a short sample; fee burn offset only about 1% of issuance at those observed rates.", "burn_vs_issuance_source": "https://insights.unlocks.app/near-halved-its-inflation-a-year-ago-the-chain-shows-the-cut-held/" }, "diligence_status": { "burn_in_12_weeks": "Available in supplied aggregate CSV", "burn_in_26_weeks": "Not run; separate BigQuery export required", "contract_attribution": "SQL prepared; schema check and query execution required", "network_economics": "Framework and dated market snapshot added; full time series not calculated", "valuation": "Not yet underwritten" }, "protocol_economics_status": { "active_maximum_annual_issuance_percent": 2.5, "hsp_029": { "status": "Passed House of Stake vote; Security Council veto window through 2026-11-16, then 90-day grace period, protocol upgrade and validator adoption required", "target_issuance_percent": 1.6, "ramp_months": 24 }, "hsp_027": { "status": "Implemented with protocol version 87 on 2026-11-04", "developer_gas_rebate_percent": 0, "eligible_execution_fee_burn_percent": 100 }, "note": "Do not present the HSP-029 1.6% target as active before ratification and protocol adoption. Do not use the superseded 70% burn / 30% developer rebate split after 2026-11-04." }, "security_risks": [ { "source": "DeFiLlama incident tracker", "date": "2026-10-01", "protocol": "NEAR Intents", "category": "Bridge & Cross-Chain", "reported_amount_usd": 3800000, "note": "Material product/contract accounting and monitoring weakness, but reported full financial recovery. Not a NEAR base-layer consensus incident.", "root_cause": "Deposit-notification bug in the NEAR Intents contract, not an Omni bridge bug; 23 failing notifications created unbacked internal balances.", "recovery_status": "The 16 October postmortem says all funds were returned on 2 October and affected users were made whole. Deposit-notification feature removed on 7 October after another critical report. Recovery is reported by the team; verify on-chain where possible." } ] }